Season overview — HP (excl. game 7)
ECL HP record
3 – 3
same record as S7
ECL total HP margin
–77
S7 was –178 (ECL closer)
ECL SnD record
2 – 4
excl. game 7
Margin gap incl. G7
6.8%
ECL –123 · S7 –132
Positional matchup verdicts
Impact gap –1.6
Hill gap –4.6s
Impact gap –24.2
Hill gap +9.6s
Impact gap +43.8
Hill gap +0.5s
Impact gap +0.8
Hill gap +2.8s
Impact gap –26.0
Hill gap –5.1s
Impact gap –28.0
Hill gap –3.7s
Positional KD gap — avg across all matchups (ECL minus S7)
Impact gap
Hill time gap (seconds)
HP margins vs shared opponents
SnD results + Krull SnD KD
Krull — HP KD vs SnD KD across all 7 matches
Time vs Hacks — impact by match
Figure — KD vs Fadi (PDX, NV, CYC, ASG) & vs Virus (NATO, STX, G7)
vs Fadi
vs Virus
Written breakdown
01
HP record — same on paper, different in feel
Both teams went 3W–3L against shared opponents — same wins (ASG, NATO, STX), same losses (PDX, NV, CYC). The difference is margins. S7's total HP margin across those 6 matches was –178; ECL's was –77, meaning ECL actually stayed closer to 250 on average. S7 won more convincingly when they won (NATO +83 vs ECL +65, ASG +53 vs ECL +14), but ECL's STX blowout (+145 vs S7's +8) heavily offsets that. Including game 7, the gap basically disappears: S7 –132, ECL –123.
02
Time is ECL's most consistently underperforming player
He loses the KD matchup vs Hacks in 5 of 7 games and the impact matchup in 6 of 7. His worst game was against S7 directly — 0.55 KD, 92 impact, vs Hacks' 1.18 KD and 175 impact. His hill time is also lower than Hacks in 5 of 7. There is no match where he convincingly beats Hacks across all three metrics simultaneously.
03
Krull vs Saint is ECL's second biggest positional problem
Across their 5 direct matchups, Krull averages a 0.254 KD deficit and a 24-point impact deficit against Saint. The only metric that's close is hill time — Krull actually averages 9.6 seconds more on hill than Saint — but that's not compensating for the kill gap.
04
Krull's SnD KD is genuinely split across the season
His first three SnD matches: 0.36, 0.50, 0.78 — below 1.0 every time, and ECL lost all three SnD maps. His last four: 1.60, 1.00, 1.50, 2.00 — much better, and ECL went 2–2 in those. The average across all 7 is 1.11 SnD vs 0.88 HP, so the SnD uplift is real — but it arrived mid-season, and the early form tanked their SnD record.
05
ECL's SnD and HP results move together — SnD is not a safety net
ECL went 3 wins out of 7 overall in SnD. All three losses in the first half were heavy (3–9, 1–9, 2–9). There is no evidence SnD is bailing them out when HP struggles — both modes trend in the same direction game to game.
06
Figure is ECL's strongest player — against the right opponent
Against Fadi (4 matches), he dominates: +0.258 KD and +43.8 impact on average. But when the opponent switches to Virus (NATO, STX, game 7), he goes 0–3 in impact, averaging lower KD too. Virus is a different level of opponent. Figure beats a mid-tier AR comfortably, but the data shows he struggles against elite competition at that position.
07
Arhin vs Pain is much closer than it looks
Over 6 matchups the KD gap is only –0.063 and the impact gap is almost dead even (+0.8 in Arhin's favour). Arhin's hill time also slightly edges Pain (+2.8s). He won the individual matchup in 3 of 6 games. This is not a broken slot — it's competitive.
08
Koko vs Life is a complete draw
KD gap of +0.019, impact gap of –1.6 across all 7 games. Neither player is deciding matches. A completely neutral positional matchup on both sides.
09
NATO is a statistical outlier — don't read too much into it
Arhin didn't play — Vector came in, went 1.00 KD but got badly beaten by Pain (1.85 KD, 195 impact vs Vector's 167). Krull also faced Fadi instead of Saint and actually won that individual matchup (1.14 vs 0.77 KD). NATO is not fully representative of the usual lineup dynamics.